Alanyaspor 2-3 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alanyaspor face Samsunspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Alanyaspor welcome Samsunspor to Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig (matchday 31). Kick-off is Monday 27 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Samsunspor — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 1.10 PPG, Samsunspor 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Alanyaspor's games and 70% of Samsunspor's (from Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Alanyaspor have won 2, Samsunspor 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2025, ended Alanyaspor 1–1 Samsunspor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 58% versus Samsunspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 44% | Samsunspor 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Alanyaspor surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Samsunspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Samsunspor surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Alanyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.73 xG and Samsunspor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.015 / defence 0.958 | Samsunspor attack 1.063 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.116. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 66 games and Samsunspor's last 66.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.05 | Draw 3.48 | Samsunspor 4.42. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 31 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Alanyaspor 1.73 / Samsunspor 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.015 / def 0.958 | Samsunspor attack 1.063 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Samsunspor xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 27 April 2026 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Alanyaspor 2 - 3 Samsunspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 31) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 49% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Alanyaspor and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.01x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alanyaspor's last 66 games and Samsunspor's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
49%
2.05
29%
3.48
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.86
1.14
Samsunspor xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
4%
24.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.14 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 66 games, going 18W 24D 24L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.61 PPG from 66 outings (29W 19D 18L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Samsunspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 13W 10D 10L across their last 33 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 33 away games (13W 10D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.38 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Samsunspor
Current Season
Alanyaspor (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Samsunspor
Current Season
❓ Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Alanyaspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 18W 24D 24L in their last 66 games (1.18 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 29W 19D 18L in their last 66 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.48 PPG; Samsunspor away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 27 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Samsunspor?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Alanyaspor have won 2, Samsunspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2026: Alanyaspor 2-3 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Samsunspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 47% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 52%, Samsunspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Alanyaspor) and 54% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Samsunspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alanyaspor and Samsunspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 54% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alanyaspor and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 54% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 73% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Samsunspor defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Alanyaspor 2-3 at Alanya Oba Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.73 xG and Samsunspor 1.14 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Samsunspor outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.01 / defence 0.96 against Samsunspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 23%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Samsunspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 44%, Samsunspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.