Alanyaspor 1-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Rizespor encounter.

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Match Analysis

Alanyaspor host Rizespor at GAIN Park Stadium in Süper Lig (matchday 7). Kick-off is Saturday 28 September 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 1W 7D 2L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Rizespor stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Rizespor away from home: 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.

Alanyaspor are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Alanyaspor have won 2, Rizespor 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Jan 2024, ended Alanyaspor 2–1 Rizespor — a Alanyaspor win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Rizespor in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 57% versus Rizespor 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 48% | Rizespor 54%). Note also that Rizespor surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Alanyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.61 xG and Rizespor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.831 / defence 0.862 | Rizespor attack 0.872 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.265. Rizespor's defence rating of 1.342 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alanyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 44 games and Rizespor's last 44.

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 51% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 21%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.94 | Draw 3.62 | Rizespor 4.79. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 40% (last 10 away games).

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