Alanyaspor 1-2 Kocaelispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Kocaelispor at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Alanya Oba Stadium, Alanyaspor have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kocaelispor stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kocaelispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kocaelispor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Alanyaspor) versus 1.20 (Kocaelispor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Alanyaspor, 1 for Kocaelispor and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2026, ended 5–0 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Kocaelispor in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 60% versus Kocaelispor 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alanyaspor 48% | Kocaelispor 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.25 xG and Kocaelispor 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.866 / defence 0.881 | Kocaelispor attack 0.855 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Data: 42 Alanyaspor games / 42 Kocaelispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 29% | Kocaelispor 26%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Kocaelispor 3.85. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 60% | Kocaelispor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 29% | Kocaelispor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Alanyaspor 1.25 / Kocaelispor 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.866 / def 0.881 | Kocaelispor attack 0.855 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Kocaelispor xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 23 October 2026 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 2 Kocaelispor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 45% chance of winning, Kocaelispor a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor?
Record (2 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Kocaelispor 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Kocaelispor (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.87) and Kocaelispor's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kocaelispor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
45%
2.23
29%
3.45
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.13
0.88
Kocaelispor xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
7%
13.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.88 for Kocaelispor, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor's recent record stands at 10W 19D 13L from 42 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kocaelispor, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 19L across 42 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Kocaelispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.17 PPG, Kocaelispor on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Alanyaspor have managed 7W 7D 6L from 20 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kocaelispor's away record stands at 4W 5D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Kocaelispor are on 0.83 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Kocaelispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 10W 19D 13L in their last 42 games (1.17 PPG), while Kocaelispor have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Kocaelispor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.40 PPG; Kocaelispor away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Kocaelispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kocaelispor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 23 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2026, when Alanyaspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Kocaelispor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
0
Draws
2
Kocaelispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor?
From 3 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Kocaelispor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-2 Kocaelispor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor?
Kocaelispor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Kocaelispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 45%, Kocaelispor 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Alanyaspor) and 35% (Kocaelispor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 30% of games; Kocaelispor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Kocaelispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Kocaelispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 45% of Kocaelispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 35% of Kocaelispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Kocaelispor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kocaelispor defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kocaelispor beat Alanyaspor 1-2 at Alanya Oba Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.25 xG and Kocaelispor 0.88 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kocaelispor outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 0.88 against Kocaelispor attack 0.85 / defence 0.92, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 45% | Draw 29% | Kocaelispor 26%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Kocaelispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 48%, Kocaelispor 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Kocaelispor's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.17 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kocaelispor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.