Alanyaspor 1-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 46% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Alanyaspor welcome Kayserispor to GAIN Park Stadium in Süper Lig (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 3 May 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alanyaspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Kayserispor have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Kayserispor's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kayserispor — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Alanyaspor: 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 2 for Kayserispor, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2024, ended Alanyaspor 0–2 Kayserispor — a Kayserispor win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Alanyaspor and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Kayserispor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 49% | Kayserispor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.61 xG and Kayserispor 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.944 / defence 1.036 | Kayserispor attack 0.989 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.197. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 69 games and Kayserispor's last 69.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 46% | Draw 25% | Kayserispor 29%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.16 | Draw 4.06 | Kayserispor 3.43. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 2), yet Kayserispor are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Alanyaspor 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Kayserispor (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Kayserispor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Kayserispor 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 34 | Venue: GAIN Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 46% | Draw 25% | Kayserispor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Alanyaspor 1.61 / Kayserispor 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.944 / def 1.036 | Kayserispor attack 0.989 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Kayserispor xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor FAQs
What time does Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 3 May 2025 at GAIN Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at GAIN Park Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 34) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 46% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Alanyaspor and Kayserispor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.94) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alanyaspor's last 69 games and Kayserispor's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.06
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.83
1.23
Kayserispor xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
6%
17.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.23 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 69 games, going 21W 23D 25L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 1.23 PPG from 69 outings (21W 22D 26L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.25 PPG, Kayserispor on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 14W 11D 9L across their last 34 home games, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 34 away games (8W 10D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.20 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Kayserispor
Current Season
Alanyaspor (Home) vs Kayserispor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Kayserispor
Current Season
❓ Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor Form FAQs
What form are Alanyaspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 21W 23D 25L in their last 69 games (1.25 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 21W 22D 26L in their last 69 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.56 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 May 2023, when Alanyaspor won Kayserispor 0-4 Alanyaspor.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Alanyaspor have won 6, Kayserispor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Alanyaspor 3-1 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Kayserispor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 62%, Kayserispor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Alanyaspor) and 50% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alanyaspor and Kayserispor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Alanyaspor's games and 53% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Alanyaspor and Kayserispor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 50% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Kayserispor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 62% of Kayserispor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Kayserispor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor and Kayserispor finished level at 1-1 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.61 xG and Kayserispor 1.23 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Kayserispor attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 46% | Draw 25% | Kayserispor 29%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 49%, Kayserispor 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.25 PPG, Kayserispor 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.