Alanyaspor 0-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Alanyaspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Fenerbahçe travel to GAIN Park Stadium to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 February 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor at GAIN Park Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fenerbahçe are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Fenerbahçe have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Alanyaspor's 1 victories.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Fenerbahçe 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 48% | Fenerbahçe 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.53 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.134 / defence 1.114 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.541 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.267. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.541 — the away xG of 2.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Alanyaspor games / 59 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 26% | Draw 23% | Fenerbahçe 51%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Fenerbahçe 1.96. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 2.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Fenerbahçe 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: GAIN Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 26% | Draw 23% | Fenerbahçe 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 70% | xG Alanyaspor 1.53 / Fenerbahçe 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.134 / def 1.114 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.541 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Fenerbahçe xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at GAIN Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Alanyaspor 0 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at GAIN Park Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 26% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (7 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 5W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 2.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
26%
3.85
23%
4.44
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.70
2.17
Fenerbahçe xG
3.85
26%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.38
Clean Sheet
11%
8.79
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
3%
33.82
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 2.17 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 59 games, going 19W 23D 17L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.54 PPG from 59 outings (47W 9D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.18 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 12W 11D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.48 points per game from 29 outings (22W 6D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.61 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 19W 23D 17L in their last 59 games (1.36 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 47W 9D 3L in their last 59 (2.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.62 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.48 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 66%, Fenerbahçe 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Alanyaspor) and 52% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Alanyaspor's games and 45% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Alanyaspor's matches and 52% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Alanyaspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Alanyaspor 0-2 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.53 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.17 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.13 / defence 1.11 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.54 / defence 0.78, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 26% | Draw 23% | Fenerbahçe 51%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 48%, Fenerbahçe 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.