Alanyaspor 2-2 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Fatih Karagümrük at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Alanyaspor have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 1.50 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 4–2 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 59% versus Fatih Karagümrük 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 59% | Fatih Karagümrük 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 2.42 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.281 / defence 0.814 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.247 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.378. Alanyaspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fatih Karagümrük have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Alanyaspor games / 56 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 20% | Fatih Karagümrük 21%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 20% | Fatih Karagümrük 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 69% | xG Alanyaspor 2.42 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.281 / def 0.814 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.247 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Fatih Karagümrük xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Alanyaspor 2 - 2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 60% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (3 meetings): Alanyaspor 2W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (1.28) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
60%
1.68
20%
5.06
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.82
1.40
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.68
60%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
9%
11.21
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
2%
54.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.40 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 56 games, going 25W 13D 18L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.39 PPG from 56 outings (21W 15D 20L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.57 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 14W 7D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 1.11 points per game from 28 outings (8W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.52 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 25W 13D 18L in their last 56 games (1.57 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 21W 15D 20L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.75 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 4, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 61%, Fatih Karagümrük 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Alanyaspor and 64% for Fatih Karagümrük. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Alanyaspor's games and 57% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Alanyaspor's matches and 64% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük finished level at 2-2 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 2.42 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.40 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.28 / defence 0.81 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.25 / defence 1.17, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 60% | Draw 20% | Fatih Karagümrük 21%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 59%, Fatih Karagümrük 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.57 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.