Alanyaspor 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Fatih Karagümrük at GAİN Park Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 December 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GAİN Park Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record: 1W 1D 5L from 7 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 0.90 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Alanyaspor hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Fatih Karagümrük, with 3 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Alanyaspor and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 50% versus Fatih Karagümrük 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alanyaspor 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.26 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.758 / defence 0.701 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.686 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.309. Alanyaspor's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Alanyaspor's defence rating of 0.701 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Alanyaspor games / 16 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 37% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.08 | Draw 2.70 | Fatih Karagümrük 6.67. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: GAİN Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Dec 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 37% | Fatih Karagümrük 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Alanyaspor 1.26 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.758 / def 0.701 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.686 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Fatih Karagümrük xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 21 December 2025 at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Alanyaspor 2 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 48% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 15% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (6 meetings): Alanyaspor 3W | Draws 3 | Fatih Karagümrük 0W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.76) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.7%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
48%
2.08
37%
2.72
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
1.89
0.63
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.08
48%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
4%
23.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 9.5 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.63 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 9D 4L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 0.56 PPG from 16 outings (2W 3D 11L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 0.57 points per game from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 0.88 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Defensively: Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 3W 9D 4L in their last 16 games (1.12 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 3D 11L in their last 16 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.29 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 4, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 14%, Fatih Karagümrük 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Alanyaspor) and 71% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 57% of games; Fatih Karagümrük in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 57% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 71% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.26 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.63 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.76 / defence 0.70 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.69 / defence 1.32, drawn from 52/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 37% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 31%, Fatih Karagümrük 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.56. Form held, and they took the win. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.