Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eyüpspor make the trip to Alanya Oba Stadium to face Alanyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Alanyaspor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor at Alanya Oba Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Eyüpspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Alanyaspor. A 0.90 PPG lead over Eyüpspor (1.20 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Eyüpspor have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Alanyaspor's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Eyüpspor winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Eyüpspor have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 60% versus Eyüpspor 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 49% | Eyüpspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 2.18 xG and Eyüpspor 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.853 / defence 0.940 | Eyüpspor attack 0.663 / defence 1.612. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Eyüpspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.612 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Alanyaspor games / 44 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 69% | Draw 19% | Eyüpspor 12%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Eyüpspor 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Eyüpspor lead the H2H ledger, but Alanyaspor carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 60% | Eyüpspor 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 69% | Draw 19% | Eyüpspor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 48% | xG Alanyaspor 2.18 / Eyüpspor 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.853 / def 0.940 | Eyüpspor attack 0.663 / def 1.612 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Eyüpspor xG
48%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 69% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor?
Record (5 meetings): Alanyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Eyüpspor 4W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Eyüpspor (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 0.85x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 1.61x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.66x) against Alanyaspor's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
69%
1.44
19%
5.40
12%
8.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.96
0.78
Eyüpspor xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.40
19%
Draw
8.30
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
11%
8.86
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
1%
73.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.78 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alanyaspor's recent record stands at 10W 19D 14L from 43 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 25L across 43 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Alanyaspor against 0.84 for Eyüpspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Alanyaspor have managed 7W 7D 7L from 21 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 3W 5D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.81 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 10W 19D 14L in their last 43 games (1.14 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 25L in their last 43 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.33 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Eyüpspor have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eyüpspor won 3-0 on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Alanyaspor
1
Draws
4
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor?
From 5 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 0, Eyüpspor have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Eyüpspor 2-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 48%, Eyüpspor 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Alanyaspor) and 48% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games; Eyüpspor in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 38% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 48% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.