Alanyaspor 3-3 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Adana Demirspor travel to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 February 2024 at 10:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Adana Demirspor — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Adana Demirspor have posted 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Alanyaspor's games and 60% of Adana Demirspor's (from Alanyaspor's last 10 home games and Adana Demirspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Alanyaspor have won 1, Adana Demirspor 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Alanyaspor 0–4 Adana Demirspor — a Adana Demirspor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Adana Demirspor trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Adana Demirspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 64% | Adana Demirspor 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Alanyaspor surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Adana Demirspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.30 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.942 / defence 1.145 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.818 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.161. Data: built from Alanyaspor's last 61 games and Adana Demirspor's last 61.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.60 | Draw 3.00 | Adana Demirspor 3.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alanyaspor 80% (last 10 home games) | Adana Demirspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 26 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Alanyaspor 1.30 / Adana Demirspor 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.942 / def 1.145 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.818 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Adana Demirspor xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor FAQs
What time does Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Alanyaspor 3 - 3 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 26) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 38% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alanyaspor's last 61 games and Adana Demirspor's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
38%
2.60
33%
3.00
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.38
1.09
Adana Demirspor xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.09 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 61 games, going 17W 18D 26L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.64 PPG from 61 outings (27W 19D 15L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 12W 9D 9L across their last 30 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 12D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.84 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 62%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Alanyaspor (Home) vs Adana Demirspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alanyaspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor Form FAQs
What form are Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 17W 18D 26L in their last 61 games (1.13 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 27W 19D 15L in their last 61 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 23 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Oct 2023, when Adana Demirspor won Adana Demirspor 4-0 Alanyaspor.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
3
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Alanyaspor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 February 2025: Alanyaspor 3-2 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 57%, Adana Demirspor 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Alanyaspor) and 53% (Adana Demirspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Alanyaspor's games and 70% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Alanyaspor's matches and 53% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 70% of Adana Demirspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor finished level at 3-3 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.30 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.09 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.82 / defence 0.94, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 38% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 28%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 64%, Adana Demirspor 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.