Adana Demirspor 1-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to face Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 27 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor (all games): 2W 0D 0L across 2 Süper Lig outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor arrive in superior form — a 2.50 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 0.76 xG and Konyaspor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.813 / defence 1.130 | Konyaspor attack 0.830 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 0.916 / away 1.187. Data: 2 Adana Demirspor games / 2 Konyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 22% | Draw 37% | Konyaspor 41%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 4.55 | Draw 2.70 | Konyaspor 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.87 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 22% | Draw 37% | Konyaspor 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Adana Demirspor 0.76 / Konyaspor 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.813 / def 1.130 | Konyaspor attack 0.830 / def 1.015 | league avg home 0.916 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Konyaspor xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 22% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 41% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Adana Demirspor's attack rating (0.81) and Konyaspor's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.83x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
22%
4.55
37%
2.70
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
1.87
1.11
Konyaspor xG
4.55
22%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
7%
13.86
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 17.2 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.11 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Adana Demirspor's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Konyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 0L across 2 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Konyaspor by 2.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Adana Demirspor heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Adana Demirspor are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Adana Demirspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Konyaspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
3
Draws
3
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Konyaspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Konyaspor 3-1 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 50% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 50% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, as Adana Demirspor and Konyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 0.76 xG and Konyaspor 1.11 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.13 against Konyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 22% | Draw 37% | Konyaspor 41%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 0%, Konyaspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.