Adana Demirspor 2-6 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Adana Demirspor face Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Başakşehir travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 May 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Adana Demirspor — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana Demirspor have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Başakşehir are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Adana Demirspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Başakşehir in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Adana Demirspor, 3 for Başakşehir and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Başakşehir trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 62% versus Başakşehir 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 60% | Başakşehir 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.12 xG and Başakşehir 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.860 / defence 1.315 | Başakşehir attack 1.125 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.248. Data: 73 Adana Demirspor games / 73 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 21% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 53%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Başakşehir 1.89. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 60% | Başakşehir 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 21% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.12 / Başakşehir 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.860 / def 1.315 | Başakşehir attack 1.125 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Başakşehir xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Adana Demirspor 2 - 6 Başakşehir.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 21% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir?
Record (5 meetings): Adana Demirspor 1W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 3W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Adana Demirspor's attack rating (0.86) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
21%
4.71
26%
3.84
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.97
1.85
Başakşehir xG
4.71
21%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
16%
6.34
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
3%
29.85
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.85 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 30W 23D 20L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Başakşehir's form line: 35W 15D 23L from 73 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Adana Demirspor on 1.55 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 1.97 PPG from 36 outings (21W 8D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 13W 10D 13L from 36 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.44 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 30W 23D 20L in their last 73 games (1.55 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 35W 15D 23L in their last 73 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.97 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 May 2024, when Başakşehir won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
1
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Başakşehir have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Başakşehir 2-3 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 53%, Başakşehir 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Adana Demirspor) and 39% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Başakşehir in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 44% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 39% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 2-6 hammering of Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Adana Demirspor 2-6 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.12 xG and Başakşehir 1.85 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-6 for 8 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Başakşehir outscored their 1.85 projection by 4.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.31 against Başakşehir attack 1.12 / defence 0.84, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 21% | Draw 26% | Başakşehir 53%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Başakşehir 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 1.55 PPG, Başakşehir 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.