Trabzonspor 1-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Rizespor travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trabzonspor have posted 5W 4D 1L at Papara Park — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Rizespor have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Trabzonspor, 4 for Rizespor and 0 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Rizespor in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 61% versus Rizespor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 56% | Rizespor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.89 xG and Rizespor 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.313 / defence 1.071 | Rizespor attack 1.221 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.239. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rizespor have an above-average attack strength of 1.221 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Trabzonspor games / 61 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 42% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 31%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Rizespor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 80% | Rizespor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 42% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 71% | xG Trabzonspor 1.89 / Rizespor 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.313 / def 1.071 | Rizespor attack 1.221 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Rizespor xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Trabzonspor 1 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Rizespor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 42% chance of winning, Rizespor a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Trabzonspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Rizespor?
Record (7 meetings): Trabzonspor 3W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 4W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Rizespor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Rizespor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
42%
2.40
28%
3.63
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.51
1.62
Rizespor xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.43
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
8%
12.12
5%
21.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.62 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 29W 18D 14L from 61 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 26L across 61 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 17W 9D 4L from 30 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 8W 7D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.38 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 29W 18D 14L in their last 61 games (1.72 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 22W 13D 26L in their last 61 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Rizespor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Rizespor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Rizespor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Trabzonspor
0
Draws
4
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 4, Rizespor have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-0 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 60%, Rizespor 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Trabzonspor and 63% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Rizespor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Trabzonspor's games and 63% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Trabzonspor's matches and 63% of Rizespor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Rizespor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Rizespor 1-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.89 xG and Rizespor 1.62 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Rizespor landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.31 / defence 1.07 against Rizespor attack 1.22 / defence 1.09, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 42% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 31%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 56%, Rizespor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rizespor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.