Trabzonspor 3-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Fenerbahçe at Medical Park Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trabzonspor — All Games: 5W 3D 0L from 8 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.25 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's home record at Medical Park Stadyumu: 1W 2D 0L from 3 Süper Lig appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.67 lags behind their overall 2.25 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Medical Park Stadyumu this season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 6W 1D 1L from 8 outings — 2.38 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.75. Defensively, 0.75 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 3W 0D 1L from 4 away outings — 2.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trabzonspor at 2.25 PPG versus Fenerbahçe's 2.38. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Fenerbahçe trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 75% and Fenerbahçe 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 62% | Fenerbahçe 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.13 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.003 / defence 1.205 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.902 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.142. Data: 8 Trabzonspor games / 8 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 33% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 39%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Fenerbahçe 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Trabzonspor 100% | Fenerbahçe 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 33% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Trabzonspor 1.13 / Fenerbahçe 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.003 / def 1.205 | Fenerbahçe attack 0.902 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Fenerbahçe xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Trabzonspor 3 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 33% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-3D-0L in 8 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-1D-1L in 8 | 2.38 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.00x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
33%
2.99
28%
3.60
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.37
1.24
Fenerbahçe xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.24 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 8 games, going 5W 3D 0L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.38 PPG from 8 outings (6W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 2.25 PPG, Fenerbahçe on 2.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That actually lags their 2.25 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.50 scored and 0.75 conceded. Trabzonspor's scoring rate against Fenerbahçe's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 5W 3D 0L in their last 8 games (2.25 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 6W 1D 1L in their last 8 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 1.67 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Fenerbahçe won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
1
Draws
6
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Fenerbahçe have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Trabzonspor at 100%, Fenerbahçe at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Trabzonspor) and 33% (Fenerbahçe).
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 33%; Fenerbahçe in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Trabzonspor's games and 33% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 33% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fenerbahçe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Fenerbahçe 3-1 at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.13 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.24 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.21 against Fenerbahçe attack 0.90 / defence 0.95, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 33% | Draw 28% | Fenerbahçe 39%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 62%, Fenerbahçe 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 2.25 PPG, Fenerbahçe 2.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.