Trabzonspor 1-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Başakşehir make the trip to Papara Park to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 December 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Trabzonspor (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor at Papara Park this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Başakşehir have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Trabzonspor's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Başakşehir's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Trabzonspor, 2 for Başakşehir and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2023, ended 1–3 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Trabzonspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Başakşehir goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 57% versus Başakşehir 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 63% | Başakşehir 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.39 xG and Başakşehir 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 0.955 / defence 0.830 | Başakşehir attack 0.738 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.286. Data: 51 Trabzonspor games / 52 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 51% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 21%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Başakşehir 4.76. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 50% | Başakşehir 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 51% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Trabzonspor 1.39 / Başakşehir 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 0.955 / def 0.830 | Başakşehir attack 0.738 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Başakşehir xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Trabzonspor 1 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 51% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Trabzonspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
Record (4 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 2W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 0.95x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (0.74x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
51%
1.98
29%
3.47
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.18
0.79
Başakşehir xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
5%
19.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.4 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.79 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor come into this having played 51 games, going 25W 8D 18L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.51 PPG from 51 outings (22W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Trabzonspor against 1.51 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Trabzonspor's home form reads 17W 4D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.12 points per game from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.33 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 25W 8D 18L in their last 51 games (1.63 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 22W 11D 18L in their last 51 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.20 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 0-3 on 15 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Başakşehir have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Başakşehir?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 40%, Başakşehir 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Trabzonspor) and 36% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Başakşehir in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 40% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 36% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor and Başakşehir share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Papara Park, Regular Season - 18, as Trabzonspor and Başakşehir drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.39 xG and Başakşehir 0.79 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.83 against Başakşehir attack 0.74 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 51% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 21%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 63%, Başakşehir 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Başakşehir's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.63 PPG, Başakşehir 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.