Trabzonspor 1-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor meet at Papara Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Monday 23 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Trabzonspor (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trabzonspor have posted 7W 1D 2L at Papara Park — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Trabzonspor's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Alanyaspor's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Trabzonspor 2W, Alanyaspor 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2023, ended 5–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 56% versus Alanyaspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 63% | Alanyaspor 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.11 xG and Alanyaspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.216 / defence 0.916 | Alanyaspor attack 0.849 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.206. Data: 43 Trabzonspor games / 44 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 62% | Draw 24% | Alanyaspor 14%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Alanyaspor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 60% | Alanyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Monday 23 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 62% | Draw 24% | Alanyaspor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 55% | xG Trabzonspor 2.11 / Alanyaspor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.216 / def 0.916 | Alanyaspor attack 0.849 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Alanyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 October 2023 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Trabzonspor 1 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 62% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Trabzonspor 2W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.22x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.85x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
62%
1.61
24%
4.16
14%
7.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.04
0.94
Alanyaspor xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
7.27
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
12%
8.22
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
2%
59.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.94 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor come into this having played 43 games, going 20W 6D 17L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.12 PPG from 43 outings (12W 12D 19L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Trabzonspor's home form reads 14W 3D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.60 points per game from 20 outings (2W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alanyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.35 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 20W 6D 17L in their last 43 games (1.53 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.25 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alanyaspor won 5-0 on 9 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 4, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 45%, Alanyaspor 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Trabzonspor and 70% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 55% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Trabzonspor's matches and 70% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Alanyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Alanyaspor 1-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.11 xG and Alanyaspor 0.94 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Alanyaspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.22 / defence 0.92 against Alanyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 62% | Draw 24% | Alanyaspor 14%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 63%, Alanyaspor 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.