İstanbulspor 0-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates İstanbulspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this İstanbulspor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 14 as İstanbulspor welcome Hatayspor to Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, İstanbulspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for İstanbulspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, İstanbulspor have gone 0W 1D 4L this season (5 games, 0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.20 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Hatayspor have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — İstanbulspor at 0.80 PPG versus Hatayspor's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
İstanbulspor in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hatayspor in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — İstanbulspor 58% versus Hatayspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (İstanbulspor 58% | Hatayspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 1.68 xG and Hatayspor 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.860 / defence 1.584 | Hatayspor attack 0.699 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.416. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing İstanbulspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 İstanbulspor games / 50 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 40% | Draw 24% | Hatayspor 36%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Hatayspor 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates İstanbulspor as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on İstanbulspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: İstanbulspor 60% | Hatayspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 40% | Draw 24% | Hatayspor 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG İstanbulspor 1.68 / Hatayspor 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.860 / def 1.584 | Hatayspor attack 0.699 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: İstanbulspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Hatayspor xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does İstanbulspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Hatayspor?
İstanbulspor 0 - 1 Hatayspor.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Hatayspor part of?
İstanbulspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 40% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making İstanbulspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both İstanbulspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will İstanbulspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Hatayspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are İstanbulspor and Hatayspor in?
İstanbulspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
İstanbulspor's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus İstanbulspor's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
İstanbulspor Win
40%
2.49
24%
4.11
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
3.24
1.57
Hatayspor xG
2.49
40%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
7%
15.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 1.57 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
İstanbulspor come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 2D 8L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for İstanbulspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: İstanbulspor on 0.67 PPG, Hatayspor on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
İstanbulspor's home form reads 0W 1D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.20 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L).
The Goals Picture
İstanbulspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.92 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are İstanbulspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 games (0.67 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — İstanbulspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Hatayspor's away record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — İstanbulspor at home: 0.20 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between İstanbulspor and Hatayspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: İstanbulspor have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2023, when İstanbulspor won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
İstanbulspor's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
İstanbulspor
0
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Hatayspor?
From 4 meetings on record, İstanbulspor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2024, when Hatayspor 0-3 İstanbulspor.
Who has won more matches between İstanbulspor and Hatayspor?
İstanbulspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — İstanbulspor 60%, Hatayspor 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for İstanbulspor and 60% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor have failed to score in 40% of games; Hatayspor in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when İstanbulspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of İstanbulspor's recent matches and 40% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is İstanbulspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of İstanbulspor's matches and 60% of Hatayspor's.
Do İstanbulspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
İstanbulspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hatayspor defy the odds to beat İstanbulspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat İstanbulspor 0-1 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 1.68 xG and Hatayspor 1.57 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. İstanbulspor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.58 against Hatayspor attack 0.70 / defence 1.31, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 40% | Draw 24% | Hatayspor 36%, with İstanbulspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Hatayspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 58%, Hatayspor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
İstanbulspor's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hatayspor's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — İstanbulspor 0.67 PPG, Hatayspor 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hatayspor win broke the near-deadlock. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.