Sivasspor 1-3 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Sivasspor and Kasımpaşa meet at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Sivasspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Kasımpaşa (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Kasımpaşa arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kasımpaşa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sivasspor 1W, Kasımpaşa 0W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 3–1 with Sivasspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Sivasspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 63% and Kasımpaşa 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 49% | Kasımpaşa 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.29 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.915 / defence 1.033 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.123 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.336. Data: 35 Sivasspor games / 35 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sivasspor 30% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 42%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Kasımpaşa 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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