Sivasspor 0-0 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 35 as Sivasspor welcome Bodrum FK to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sivasspor's home record at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodrum FK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Bodrum FK have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bodrum FK are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sivasspor, 1 for Bodrum FK and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Bodrum FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bodrum FK in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 62% versus Bodrum FK 28%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 59% | Bodrum FK 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.57 xG and Bodrum FK 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.137 / defence 1.017 | Bodrum FK attack 0.688 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.226. Data: 71 Sivasspor games / 32 Bodrum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 54% | Draw 25% | Bodrum FK 21%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Bodrum FK 4.76. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodrum FK (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 70% | Bodrum FK 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 54% | Draw 25% | Bodrum FK 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Sivasspor 1.57 / Bodrum FK 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.137 / def 1.017 | Bodrum FK attack 0.688 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Bodrum FK xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK?
Sivasspor 0 - 0 Bodrum FK.
Where is Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK part of?
Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 54% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sivasspor and Bodrum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Bodrum FK?
Record (1 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 0 | Bodrum FK 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Bodrum FK in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Bodrum FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sivasspor's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Bodrum FK's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Bodrum FK's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.94
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.43
0.86
Bodrum FK xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
4%
23.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.86 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor come into this having played 32 games, going 9W 6D 17L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Bodrum FK sit at 1.06 PPG from 32 outings (9W 7D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.03 PPG, Bodrum FK on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sivasspor's home form reads 7W 4D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Sivasspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bodrum FK have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 0.75 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Bodrum FK in 28%.
Defensively: Bodrum FK in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Current Season
Bodrum FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 9W 6D 17L in their last 32 games (1.03 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 9W 7D 16L in their last 32 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Bodrum FK away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.56 PPG; Bodrum FK away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Bodrum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Bodrum FK in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Bodrum FK runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sivasspor
1
Draws
1
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Bodrum FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 0, Bodrum FK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Bodrum FK last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Sivasspor 0-0 Bodrum FK.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Bodrum FK?
Bodrum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bodrum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 69%, Bodrum FK 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sivasspor) and 31% (Bodrum FK).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK in 44%; Bodrum FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Bodrum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 25% of Bodrum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs Bodrum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sivasspor's recent games and 31% of Bodrum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Bodrum FK tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Bodrum FK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sivasspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, as Sivasspor and Bodrum FK drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.57 xG and Bodrum FK 0.86 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Bodrum FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.14 / defence 1.02 against Bodrum FK attack 0.69 / defence 0.86, drawn from 71/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 54% | Draw 25% | Bodrum FK 21%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 59%, Bodrum FK 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodrum FK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.03 PPG, Bodrum FK 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.