Samsunspor 3-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu plays host to Samsunspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Samsunspor, 1.10 for Rizespor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Samsunspor 0W, Rizespor 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Rizespor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Rizespor — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 58% versus Rizespor 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 38% | Rizespor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.81 xG and Rizespor 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.956 / defence 0.858 | Rizespor attack 0.696 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.201. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Samsunspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Samsunspor games / 26 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 61% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 12%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.64 | Draw 3.70 | Rizespor 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Samsunspor (61%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Samsunspor 50% | Rizespor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 23 Feb 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 61% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Samsunspor 1.81 / Rizespor 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.956 / def 0.858 | Rizespor attack 0.696 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Rizespor xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 23 February 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Samsunspor 3 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Rizespor part of?
Samsunspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 61% chance of winning, Rizespor a 12% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Samsunspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Rizespor?
Record (1 meetings): Samsunspor 0W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Rizespor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Rizespor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.96x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.70x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
61%
1.64
27%
3.68
12%
8.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.53
0.72
Rizespor xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
8.53
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
2%
52.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 10.4 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Samsunspor and 0.72 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Samsunspor come into this having played 26 games, going 8W 6D 12L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.38 PPG from 26 outings (10W 6D 10L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.38 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Samsunspor's home form reads 7W 2D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.08 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 8W 6D 12L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 10W 6D 10L in their last 26 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Rizespor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.92 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Rizespor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Samsunspor won 3-0 on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
1
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Rizespor?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Rizespor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2026, when Rizespor 4-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 50%, Rizespor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Samsunspor) and 67% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Rizespor in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 58% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Samsunspor's recent games and 67% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Samsunspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Rizespor 3-0 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.81 xG and Rizespor 0.72 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.96 / defence 0.86 against Rizespor attack 0.70 / defence 1.30, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 61% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 12%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 38%, Rizespor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.15 PPG, Rizespor 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.