Samsunspor 2-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Ankaragücü fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 29 as Samsunspor welcome Ankaragücü to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 March 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Samsunspor — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Samsunspor have posted 7W 1D 2L at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ankaragücü stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Ankaragücü have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Samsunspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Samsunspor, 1 for Ankaragücü and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Ankaragücü winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Samsunspor trading profile (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Ankaragücü trading profile (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 54% versus Ankaragücü 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Samsunspor 39% | Ankaragücü 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.53 xG and Ankaragücü 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 1.005 / defence 0.846 | Ankaragücü attack 0.980 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.169. Data: 28 Samsunspor games / 64 Ankaragücü games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 48% | Draw 30% | Ankaragücü 22%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Ankaragücü 4.55. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 40% | Ankaragücü 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 48% | Draw 30% | Ankaragücü 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Samsunspor 1.53 / Ankaragücü 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 1.005 / def 0.846 | Ankaragücü attack 0.980 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ankaragücü xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Samsunspor vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Ankaragücü?
Samsunspor 2 - 1 Ankaragücü.
Where is Samsunspor vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Ankaragücü part of?
Samsunspor vs Ankaragücü is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 48% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Samsunspor and Ankaragücü will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Ankaragücü?
Record (1 meetings): Samsunspor 0W | Draws 0 | Ankaragücü 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Ankaragücü in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Ankaragücü (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Samsunspor's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Ankaragücü's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Ankaragücü's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
48%
2.08
30%
3.31
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.50
0.97
Ankaragücü xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
5%
21.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Samsunspor and 0.97 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Ankaragücü?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 9W 6D 13L from 28 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Ankaragücü, meanwhile, have gone 6W 12D 10L across 28 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 1.18 PPG, Ankaragücü on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Samsunspor have managed 8W 2D 3L from 13 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ankaragücü's away record stands at 2W 5D 6L across 13 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Samsunspor are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.18 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Current Season
Ankaragücü
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 9W 6D 13L in their last 28 games (1.18 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 6W 12D 10L in their last 28 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Ankaragücü away?
Samsunspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Samsunspor
0
Draws
1
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Ankaragücü?
From 2 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 1, Ankaragücü have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Ankaragücü last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2024, when Samsunspor 2-1 Ankaragücü.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Samsunspor at 46%, Ankaragücü at 85%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Samsunspor) and 54% (Ankaragücü).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Ankaragücü?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Samsunspor's games and 85% of Ankaragücü's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Ankaragücü usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Samsunspor's recent games and 54% of Ankaragücü's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Ankaragücü tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Ankaragücü in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Ankaragücü 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Ankaragücü 2-1 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.53 xG and Ankaragücü 0.97 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.85 against Ankaragücü attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 48% | Draw 30% | Ankaragücü 22%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 39%, Ankaragücü 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.18 PPG, Ankaragücü 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.