Rizespor 1-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Rizespor take on Sivasspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Sivasspor travel to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to take on Rizespor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 September 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 3W 1D 1L from 5 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sivasspor away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Rizespor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Rizespor have won 0, Sivasspor 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Sivasspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rizespor 60% and Sivasspor 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 60% | Sivasspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.09 xG and Sivasspor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.723 / defence 0.824 | Sivasspor attack 0.990 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.357. Rizespor's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Rizespor games / 41 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 31% | Draw 37% | Sivasspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | Sivasspor 3.12. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 60% | Sivasspor 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 31% | Draw 37% | Sivasspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG Rizespor 1.09 / Sivasspor 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.723 / def 0.824 | Sivasspor attack 0.990 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Sivasspor xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Rizespor 1 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Sivasspor part of?
Rizespor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 31% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rizespor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Sivasspor?
Record (2 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Sivasspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rizespor's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.23
37%
2.69
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.20
1.11
Sivasspor xG
3.23
31%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.11 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Rizespor have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 3W 1D 1L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sivasspor's form line: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Rizespor are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sivasspor.
Goals in Recent Form
Rizespor are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rizespor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 80%.
Defensively: Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Sivasspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Rizespor or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rizespor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Rizespor
3
Draws
3
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Sivasspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 0, Sivasspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Rizespor 1-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rizespor at 60%, Sivasspor at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Rizespor) and 40% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rizespor's games and 80% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Rizespor's recent games and 40% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor and Sivasspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, as Rizespor and Sivasspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.09 xG and Sivasspor 1.11 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.72 / defence 0.82 against Sivasspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.08, drawn from 5/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 31% | Draw 37% | Sivasspor 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 60%, Sivasspor 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.