Rizespor 2-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Konyaspor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Konyaspor away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Konyaspor arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rizespor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Konyaspor in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Rizespor, 1 for Konyaspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 0–3 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 52% versus Konyaspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 61% | Konyaspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.62 xG and Konyaspor 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.959 / defence 1.338 | Konyaspor attack 1.015 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.238. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Rizespor games / 31 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 37% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 39%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 60% | Konyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 37% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Rizespor 1.62 / Konyaspor 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.959 / def 1.338 | Konyaspor attack 1.015 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Konyaspor xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Rizespor 2 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Konyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 37% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Rizespor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Konyaspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.96x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.01x) against Rizespor's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
37%
2.72
24%
4.13
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Rizespor xG
Total xG
3.30
1.68
Konyaspor xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
7%
14.62
8%
12.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.68 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 31 games, going 7W 5D 19L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.87 PPG from 31 outings (17W 7D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Konyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Rizespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 7W 1D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.84 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.40 points per game from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.65 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 7W 5D 19L in their last 31 games (0.84 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 17W 7D 7L in their last 31 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Konyaspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.47 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Rizespor
3
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Konyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Rizespor 3-2 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Konyaspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 60%, Konyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Rizespor and 60% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rizespor's games and 67% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Rizespor's matches and 60% of Konyaspor's.
Do Rizespor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Konyaspor 2-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.62 xG and Konyaspor 1.68 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.96 / defence 1.34 against Konyaspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.37, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 37% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 39%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 61%, Konyaspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Konyaspor's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Rizespor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.