Rizespor 0-2 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 40%, yet in-form Hatayspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rizespor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Hatayspor meet at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games (0.33 PPG). Last five: L D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hatayspor (all games): 1W 1D 1L across 3 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.33 points per game. Last five: D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hatayspor arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.33 vs 0.33) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 33% versus Hatayspor 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rizespor 67% | Hatayspor 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.11 xG and Hatayspor 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.796 / defence 1.040 | Hatayspor attack 0.851 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.016. Rizespor's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Rizespor games / 3 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 40% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Hatayspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hatayspor (1.33 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 33% | Hatayspor 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 40% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Rizespor 1.11 / Hatayspor 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.796 / def 1.040 | Hatayspor attack 0.851 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Hatayspor xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Hatayspor?
Rizespor 0 - 2 Hatayspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Hatayspor part of?
Rizespor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 40% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Rizespor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Hatayspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rizespor and Hatayspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.80) and Hatayspor's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.85x) against Rizespor's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
40%
2.48
31%
3.28
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.01
0.90
Hatayspor xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.90 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hatayspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Rizespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 2.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Hatayspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Rizespor or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Rizespor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 5-2 on 31 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rizespor
1
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Hatayspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Rizespor 5-2 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Hatayspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 33%, Hatayspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Rizespor and 67% for Hatayspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hatayspor in 33%; Rizespor have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Rizespor's recent matches and 67% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Rizespor's matches and 67% of Hatayspor's.
Do Rizespor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Rizespor 0-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.11 xG and Hatayspor 0.90 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rizespor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Hatayspor outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against Hatayspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.24, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 40% | Draw 31% | Hatayspor 29%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Hatayspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 67%, Hatayspor 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hatayspor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hatayspor arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Hatayspor conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.