Rizespor 6-3 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 36 as Rizespor welcome Göztepe to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Göztepe — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Göztepe have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rizespor at 1.30 PPG versus Göztepe's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rizespor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Göztepe in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Rizespor, 1 for Göztepe and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 0–3 with Göztepe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rizespor trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Göztepe trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 54% versus Göztepe 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 54% | Göztepe 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.57 xG and Göztepe 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.936 / defence 0.914 | Göztepe attack 0.812 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.249. Data: 71 Rizespor games / 33 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 52% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 22%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Göztepe 4.55. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Rizespor 60% | Göztepe 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 52% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Rizespor 1.57 / Göztepe 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.936 / def 0.914 | Göztepe attack 0.812 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Göztepe xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Göztepe kick off?
Rizespor vs Göztepe kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Göztepe?
Rizespor 6 - 3 Göztepe.
Where is Rizespor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Göztepe part of?
Rizespor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 52% chance of winning, Göztepe a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rizespor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Göztepe?
Record (3 meetings): Rizespor 2W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Göztepe in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Göztepe (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.94) and Göztepe's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
52%
1.91
25%
3.94
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.50
0.93
Göztepe xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
5%
21.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.93 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rizespor come into this having played 33 games, going 12W 4D 17L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 1.42 PPG from 33 outings (12W 11D 10L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.21 PPG, Göztepe on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rizespor's home form reads 7W 4D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 0.69 points per game from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Göztepe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rizespor are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.64 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 64%.
Last 33 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Current Season
Göztepe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 12W 4D 17L in their last 33 games (1.21 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 12W 11D 10L in their last 33 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Göztepe away?
Rizespor's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.56 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Göztepe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2022, when Rizespor won 1-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rizespor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rizespor
0
Draws
3
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Göztepe have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Göztepe 3-1 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 56%, Göztepe 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Rizespor) and 50% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Göztepe in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Rizespor's games and 69% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Rizespor's recent games and 50% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 6-3 hammering of Göztepe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Göztepe 6-3 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.57 xG and Göztepe 0.93 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 6-3 for 9 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 4.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Göztepe outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.94 / defence 0.91 against Göztepe attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 52% | Draw 25% | Göztepe 22%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 54%, Göztepe 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Göztepe's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.21 PPG, Göztepe 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.