Pendikspor 0-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pendikspor at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pendikspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pendikspor and Konyaspor meet at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pendikspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pendikspor have posted 4W 1D 5L at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Konyaspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Pendikspor against 1.00 for Konyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pendikspor lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Pendikspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pendikspor — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pendikspor 67% versus Konyaspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 52% | Konyaspor 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.62 xG and Konyaspor 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.935 / defence 1.202 | Konyaspor attack 0.709 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.173. Data: 27 Pendikspor games / 63 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 49% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Konyaspor 5.00. Pendikspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pendikspor are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pendikspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pendikspor 40% | Konyaspor 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 49% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Pendikspor 1.62 / Konyaspor 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.935 / def 1.202 | Konyaspor attack 0.709 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Pendikspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Konyaspor xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pendikspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Pendikspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Konyaspor?
Pendikspor 0 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Pendikspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Pendikspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 49% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pendikspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pendikspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Pendikspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Konyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Pendikspor 1W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 0W.
What form are Pendikspor and Konyaspor in?
Pendikspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pendikspor's attack rating (0.94) and Konyaspor's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.71x) against Pendikspor's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 27/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pendikspor Win
49%
2.05
31%
3.24
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
2.62
1.00
Konyaspor xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
4%
24.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Pendikspor and 1.00 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Pendikspor have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 6W 8D 13L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 6W 10D 11L from 27 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Pendikspor against 1.04 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pendikspor have posted 1.15 PPG from 13 outings (4W 3D 6L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 1W 6D 6L from 13 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pendikspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pendikspor are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 0.96 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pendikspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 6W 8D 13L in their last 27 games (0.96 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 6W 10D 11L in their last 27 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pendikspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Pendikspor's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pendikspor at home: 1.15 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pendikspor
0
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Konyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Pendikspor have won 1, Konyaspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Pendikspor 0-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pendikspor 54%, Konyaspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Pendikspor) and 46% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Pendikspor have failed to score in 31% of games; Konyaspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pendikspor play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Pendikspor's recent matches and 54% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pendikspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Pendikspor's recent games and 46% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pendikspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Pendikspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pendikspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Pendikspor 0-2 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 1.62 xG and Konyaspor 1.00 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pendikspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Konyaspor outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.20 against Konyaspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.19, drawn from 27/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 49% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 20%, with Pendikspor to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Konyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 52%, Konyaspor 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Konyaspor's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pendikspor 0.96 PPG, Konyaspor 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Pendikspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.