Pendikspor 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pendikspor and Fatih Karagümrük meet at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Pendikspor have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 5 games: 0W 3D 2L. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Fatih Karagümrük's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Fatih Karagümrük are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Pendikspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pendikspor 80% versus Fatih Karagümrük 20%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pendikspor 40% | Fatih Karagümrük 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.05 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.822 / defence 1.465 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.040 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.357. Pendikspor's defence rating of 1.465 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output up. Data: built from Pendikspor's last 5 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 41.
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 16% | Draw 26% | Fatih Karagümrük 58%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 6.41 | Draw 3.78 | Fatih Karagümrük 1.73. The model has a clear lean to Fatih Karagümrük (58%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.05 / 2.07) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pendikspor's last 5 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pendikspor 80% (last 5 games) | Fatih Karagümrük 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 6 | Venue: Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 16% | Draw 26% | Fatih Karagümrük 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Pendikspor 1.05 / Fatih Karagümrük 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.822 / def 1.465 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.040 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Fatih Karagümrük xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük FAQs
What time does Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Pendikspor 1 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 6) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 16% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 58% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Pendikspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pendikspor's attack rating (0.82) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (1.04x) against Pendikspor's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 2.07.
These ratings are built from Pendikspor's last 5 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
16%
6.41
26%
3.78
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
3.12
2.07
Fatih Karagümrük xG
6.41
16%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
13%
7.91
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
2%
50.73
20%
4.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Pendikspor and 2.07 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pendikspor's recent record stands at 0W 3D 2L from 5 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 2L across 5 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fatih Karagümrük by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pendikspor heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pendikspor are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 0.60 scored and 0.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Fatih Karagümrük in 20%.
Defensively: Fatih Karagümrük in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Early Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
Pendikspor (Home) vs Fatih Karagümrük (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pendikspor
Early Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
❓ Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Form FAQs
What form are Pendikspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Pendikspor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pendikspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pendikspor
1
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Pendikspor have won 0, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2024: Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Pendikspor.
Who has won more matches between Pendikspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pendikspor 80%, Fatih Karagümrük 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Pendikspor and 0% for Fatih Karagümrük.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük in 40%; Fatih Karagümrük in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pendikspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pendikspor and Fatih Karagümrük matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Pendikspor's recent matches and 20% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pendikspor and Fatih Karagümrük matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Pendikspor's recent games and 0% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pendikspor and Fatih Karagümrük matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Pendikspor's recent matches and 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pendikspor and Fatih Karagümrük share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pendikspor and Fatih Karagümrük finished level at 1-1 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 1.05 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 2.07 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.82 / defence 1.47 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.04 / defence 0.92, drawn from 5/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 16% | Draw 26% | Fatih Karagümrük 58%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 40%, Fatih Karagümrük 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pendikspor conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.