Ümraniyespor 3-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ümraniyespor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Alanyaspor travel to Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu to take on Ümraniyespor. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 November 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ümraniyespor — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ümraniyespor's home record at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu: 0W 1D 5L from 6 Süper Lig appearances (0.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Alanyaspor have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Alanyaspor are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Ümraniyespor trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Alanyaspor trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ümraniyespor 54% versus Alanyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ümraniyespor 46% | Alanyaspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ümraniyespor 1.21 xG and Alanyaspor 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ümraniyespor attack 0.715 / defence 1.238 | Alanyaspor attack 0.926 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.325. Ümraniyespor's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Ümraniyespor games / 50 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 30% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 44%. Fair-value odds: Ümraniyespor 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Alanyaspor 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ümraniyespor 50% | Alanyaspor 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ümraniyespor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 30% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Ümraniyespor 1.21 / Alanyaspor 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Ümraniyespor attack 0.715 / def 1.238 | Alanyaspor attack 0.926 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Ümraniyespor xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Alanyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ümraniyespor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Ümraniyespor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ümraniyespor vs Alanyaspor?
Ümraniyespor 3 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Ümraniyespor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Ümraniyespor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Ümraniyespor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ümraniyespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Ümraniyespor a 30% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ümraniyespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ümraniyespor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Ümraniyespor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Alanyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ümraniyespor and Alanyaspor in?
Ümraniyespor (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ümraniyespor's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Ümraniyespor's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
30%
3.30
25%
3.95
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Ümraniyespor xG
Total xG
2.73
1.52
Alanyaspor xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
7%
15.09
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ümraniyespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ümraniyespor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.52 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Ümraniyespor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Ümraniyespor have picked up 0.27 PPG on a 0W 3D 8L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ümraniyespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor's form line: 3W 4D 4L from 11 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Alanyaspor are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ümraniyespor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ümraniyespor have posted 0.20 PPG from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L).
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alanyaspor's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Ümraniyespor are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ümraniyespor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ümraniyespor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Ümraniyespor have gone 0W 3D 8L in their last 11 games (0.27 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ümraniyespor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's away record (0.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ümraniyespor at home: 0.20 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ümraniyespor
0
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Alanyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Ümraniyespor have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ümraniyespor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2023, when Alanyaspor 1-0 Ümraniyespor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ümraniyespor 60%, Alanyaspor 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ümraniyespor) and 40% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Ümraniyespor have failed to score in 40% of games; Alanyaspor in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ümraniyespor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ümraniyespor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Ümraniyespor's recent matches and 40% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ümraniyespor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ümraniyespor's recent games and 40% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ümraniyespor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Ümraniyespor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ümraniyespor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ümraniyespor beat Alanyaspor 3-1 at Ümraniye Hekimbaşı Şehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ümraniyespor 1.21 xG and Alanyaspor 1.52 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ümraniyespor beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ümraniyespor attack 0.71 / defence 1.24 against Alanyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.18, drawn from 11/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ümraniyespor 30% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 44%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Ümraniyespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ümraniyespor 46%, Alanyaspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.27. Form was overturned, with Ümraniyespor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.