Konyaspor 2-2 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Sivasspor at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 4 January 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sivasspor — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Konyaspor) versus 1.00 (Sivasspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Konyaspor, 1 for Sivasspor and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Sivasspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 57% and Sivasspor 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 51% | Sivasspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.13 xG and Sivasspor 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.821 / defence 0.845 | Sivasspor attack 0.897 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.395. Data: 53 Konyaspor games / 54 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 37% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Sivasspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 50% | Sivasspor 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Jan 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 37% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Konyaspor 1.13 / Sivasspor 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.821 / def 0.845 | Sivasspor attack 0.897 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Sivasspor xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 4 January 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Konyaspor 2 - 2 Sivasspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 37% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Konyaspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Sivasspor?
Record (2 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Sivasspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.82x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.36
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.19
1.06
Sivasspor xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.06 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 26W 15D 12L record — D-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor's form line: 17W 17D 19L from 53 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Konyaspor are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sivasspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 2.12 PPG from 26 outings (16W 7D 3L).
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 9W 4D 13L from 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.28 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 64%.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 26W 15D 12L in their last 53 games (1.75 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 17W 17D 19L in their last 53 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.12 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Sivasspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sivasspor in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
3
Draws
4
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Sivasspor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sivasspor 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 42%, Sivasspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Konyaspor) and 58% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 62% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Konyaspor's recent games and 58% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Sivasspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, as Konyaspor and Sivasspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.13 xG and Sivasspor 1.06 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sivasspor outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.82 / defence 0.84 against Sivasspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 37% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 33%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 51%, Sivasspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sivasspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.