Konyaspor 0-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium plays host to Konyaspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 15 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rizespor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Rizespor's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.40 for Rizespor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Konyaspor lead 2W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Rizespor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 65% and Rizespor 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 56% | Rizespor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.60 xG and Rizespor 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.947 / defence 0.968 | Rizespor attack 0.976 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.184. Data: 34 Konyaspor games / 34 Rizespor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 47% | Draw 29% | Rizespor 25%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Rizespor 4.00. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 50% | Rizespor 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 47% | Draw 29% | Rizespor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Konyaspor 1.60 / Rizespor 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.947 / def 0.968 | Rizespor attack 0.976 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Rizespor xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Konyaspor 0 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Rizespor part of?
Konyaspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 47% chance of winning, Rizespor a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Konyaspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Rizespor?
Record (8 meetings): Konyaspor 2W | Draws 3 | Rizespor 3W.
What form are Konyaspor and Rizespor in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.95) and Rizespor's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.98x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
47%
2.14
29%
3.50
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.72
1.12
Rizespor xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
5%
20.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.12 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 10W 10D 14L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. Konyaspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Rizespor's form line: 10W 11D 13L from 34 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. Rizespor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.21 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.41 PPG from 17 outings (6W 6D 5L).
On the road, Rizespor have gone 2W 8D 7L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.35 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Pre-Season
Rizespor
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 10W 10D 14L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 10W 11D 13L in their last 34 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Rizespor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.41 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Rizespor go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
3
Draws
4
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Rizespor?
From 9 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Rizespor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Konyaspor 0-1 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Rizespor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 53%, Rizespor 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Konyaspor) and 59% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Rizespor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Konyaspor's games and 65% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Konyaspor's recent games and 59% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Konyaspor 0-1 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.60 xG and Rizespor 1.12 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.97 against Rizespor attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 47% | Draw 29% | Rizespor 25%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Rizespor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 56%, Rizespor 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.18 PPG, Rizespor 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.