Konyaspor 2-0 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 23 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Konyaspor (all games): 3W 5D 1L across 9 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.56 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kayserispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 4L from 9 games (1.22 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kayserispor have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.56 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.22 for Kayserispor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Kayserispor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Kayserispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 67% and Kayserispor 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 44% | Kayserispor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 2.22 xG and Kayserispor 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.097 / defence 1.162 | Kayserispor attack 0.951 / defence 1.602. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.159. Kayserispor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.602 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Konyaspor games / 9 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 59% | Draw 20% | Kayserispor 21%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Kayserispor 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 100% | Kayserispor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 59% | Draw 20% | Kayserispor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Konyaspor 2.22 / Kayserispor 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.097 / def 1.162 | Kayserispor attack 0.951 / def 1.602 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Kayserispor xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Konyaspor 2 - 0 Kayserispor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Konyaspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 59% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Konyaspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kayserispor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Konyaspor and Kayserispor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-5D-1L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (1.10) and Kayserispor's defence rating (1.60), the model arrives at 2.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.95x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
59%
1.71
20%
4.99
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
3.50
1.28
Kayserispor xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
11%
9.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
2%
42.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.28 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Kayserispor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 3W 5D 1L from 9 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 4L across 9 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.22 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.44 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 3W 5D 1L in their last 9 games (1.56 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
4
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kayserispor?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Kayserispor have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Kayserispor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Kayserispor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Konyaspor, 75% for Kayserispor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Konyaspor and 50% for Kayserispor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Konyaspor's games and 75% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Konyaspor's matches and 50% of Kayserispor's.
Do Konyaspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Kayserispor 2-0 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 2.22 xG and Kayserispor 1.28 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kayserispor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.16 against Kayserispor attack 0.95 / defence 1.60, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 59% | Draw 20% | Kayserispor 21%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 44%, Kayserispor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Kayserispor's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.56 PPG, Kayserispor 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.