Konyaspor 3-3 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 20 as Konyaspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 January 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's home record at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Konyaspor 0.90 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Konyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Kasımpaşa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Konyaspor: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Kasımpaşa, with 3 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 3–2 with Konyaspor winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Konyaspor and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 55% versus Kasımpaşa 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 41% | Kasımpaşa 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.63 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.935 / defence 1.108 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.151 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.161. Data: 56 Konyaspor games / 56 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 39% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 33%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Kasımpaşa 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 70% | Kasımpaşa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 39% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Konyaspor 1.63 / Kasımpaşa 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.935 / def 1.108 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.151 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Kasımpaşa xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Konyaspor 3 - 3 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 39% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (7 meetings): Konyaspor 4W | Draws 3 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.94) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.55
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
3.11
1.48
Kasımpaşa xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
9%
11.22
6%
15.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.48 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 14W 19D 23L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 20W 17D 19L from 56 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.09 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.22 PPG from 27 outings (8W 9D 10L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 10W 8D 9L from 27 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.54 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 14W 19D 23L in their last 56 games (1.09 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 20W 17D 19L in their last 56 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Kasımpaşa's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.22 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
6
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 56%, Kasımpaşa 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Konyaspor) and 67% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Konyaspor's games and 67% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Konyaspor's recent games and 67% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, as Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa drew 3-3 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.63 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.48 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.15 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 39% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 33%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 41%, Kasımpaşa 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.09 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.