Konyaspor 1-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatayspor make the trip to Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu to face Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu.
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Hatayspor have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Konyaspor's favour (1.80 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Konyaspor lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 3–1 with Konyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 55% versus Hatayspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 55% | Hatayspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.50 xG and Hatayspor 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.977 / defence 0.678 | Hatayspor attack 0.718 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.229. Konyaspor's defence rating of 0.678 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Konyaspor games / 42 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 59% | Draw 26% | Hatayspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Hatayspor 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Hatayspor's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 40% | Hatayspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 59% | Draw 26% | Hatayspor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 35% | xG Konyaspor 1.50 / Hatayspor 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.977 / def 0.678 | Hatayspor attack 0.718 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Hatayspor xG
35%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 59% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Konyaspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Hatayspor?
Record (2 meetings): Konyaspor 2W | Draws 0 | Hatayspor 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Hatayspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.98) and Hatayspor's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.72x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.85
15%
6.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.10
0.60
Hatayspor xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
6.79
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
33%
3.07
3%
30.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 11.0 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.60 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 22W 10D 10L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hatayspor's form line: 15W 9D 18L from 42 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Konyaspor are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatayspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 2.24 PPG from 21 outings (14W 5D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 5W 3D 13L from 21 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hatayspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.38 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Hatayspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 22W 10D 10L in their last 42 games (1.81 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 15W 9D 18L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.24 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 0-3 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Konyaspor
1
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 6, Hatayspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Hatayspor 2-3 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Hatayspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 43%, Hatayspor 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Konyaspor) and 48% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Hatayspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 43% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Konyaspor's recent games and 48% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Hatayspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Hatayspor 1-0 at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.50 xG and Hatayspor 0.60 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 0.68 against Hatayspor attack 0.72 / defence 1.06, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 59% | Draw 26% | Hatayspor 15%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 55%, Hatayspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hatayspor's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.