Kayserispor 2-3 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beşiktaş make the trip to Kadir Has Şehir Stadı to face Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Kayserispor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Kayserispor's home record at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Kayserispor are significantly better at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Kayserispor, 1.40 for Beşiktaş — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kayserispor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 2–4 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kayserispor 62% and Beşiktaş 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 56% | Beşiktaş 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.17 xG and Beşiktaş 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.927 / defence 1.269 | Beşiktaş attack 0.789 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.268. Data: 34 Kayserispor games / 34 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 33% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 37%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Beşiktaş 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 50% | Beşiktaş 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Kadir Has Şehir Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 33% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Kayserispor 1.17 / Beşiktaş 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.927 / def 1.269 | Beşiktaş attack 0.789 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Beşiktaş xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş?
Kayserispor 2 - 3 Beşiktaş.
Where is Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 33% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kayserispor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Beşiktaş?
Record (1 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Kayserispor and Beşiktaş in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kayserispor's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.79x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
33%
3.06
30%
3.33
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.44
1.27
Beşiktaş xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
9%
10.91
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.27 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kayserispor come into this having played 34 games, going 11W 10D 13L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.50 PPG from 34 outings (13W 12D 9L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.50 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kayserispor's home form reads 9W 4D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (3W 8D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beşiktaş's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kayserispor are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.44 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kayserispor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 11W 10D 13L in their last 34 games (1.26 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 13W 12D 9L in their last 34 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.82 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Beşiktaş have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 0-4 on 24 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kayserispor
1
Draws
9
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-0 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 53%, Beşiktaş 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Kayserispor) and 41% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Kayserispor's games and 65% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Kayserispor's recent games and 41% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Kayserispor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Kayserispor 2-3 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.17 xG and Beşiktaş 1.27 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Kayserispor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.93 / defence 1.27 against Beşiktaş attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 33% | Draw 30% | Beşiktaş 37%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 56%, Beşiktaş 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.26 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.