Kasımpaşa 2-0 Yeni Malatyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 38%, yet in-form Yeni Malatyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kasımpaşa vs Yeni Malatyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 11 as Kasımpaşa welcome Yeni Malatyaspor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 1W 2D 2L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Yeni Malatyaspor — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yeni Malatyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Yeni Malatyaspor — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Yeni Malatyaspor trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 60% versus Yeni Malatyaspor 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 50% | Yeni Malatyaspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.17 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.951 / defence 1.261 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.742 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.154. Data: 10 Kasımpaşa games / 10 Yeni Malatyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 29% | Yeni Malatyaspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Yeni Malatyaspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Yeni Malatyaspor (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 60% | Yeni Malatyaspor 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Yeni Malatyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 29% | Yeni Malatyaspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.17 / Yeni Malatyaspor 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.951 / def 1.261 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.742 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Yeni Malatyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Yeni Malatyaspor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Yeni Malatyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Yeni Malatyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Yeni Malatyaspor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 38% chance of winning, Yeni Malatyaspor a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Yeni Malatyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Yeni Malatyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Yeni Malatyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Yeni Malatyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (0.95) and Yeni Malatyaspor's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Yeni Malatyaspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.49
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.25
1.08
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Yeni Malatyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.08 for Yeni Malatyaspor, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 1W 3D 6L from 10 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Yeni Malatyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 4W 0D 6L across 10 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Yeni Malatyaspor by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kasımpaşa heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Yeni Malatyaspor's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yeni Malatyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Yeni Malatyaspor are on 1.10 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Yeni Malatyaspor in 30%.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Yeni Malatyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Yeni Malatyaspor away?
Yeni Malatyaspor's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 0.50 PPG; Yeni Malatyaspor away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Yeni Malatyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Yeni Malatyaspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Kasımpaşa
0
Draws
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Yeni Malatyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Yeni Malatyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Yeni Malatyaspor 0-2 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Yeni Malatyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 75%, Yeni Malatyaspor 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Kasımpaşa) and 25% (Yeni Malatyaspor).
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor in 50%; Yeni Malatyaspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Yeni Malatyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 0% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Yeni Malatyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 25% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Yeni Malatyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Yeni Malatyaspor 2-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.17 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 1.08 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yeni Malatyaspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.95 / defence 1.26 against Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.74 / defence 1.02, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 38% | Draw 29% | Yeni Malatyaspor 33%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 50%, Yeni Malatyaspor 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Yeni Malatyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Kasımpaşa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Yeni Malatyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.