Kasımpaşa 3-2 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Rizespor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 February 2025, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rizespor have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kasımpaşa 1.40 PPG, Rizespor 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 2, Rizespor 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Kasımpaşa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Rizespor in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 66% versus Rizespor 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 66% | Rizespor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.95 xG and Rizespor 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.073 / defence 1.371 | Rizespor attack 0.898 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.263. Data: 59 Kasımpaşa games / 59 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 46% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 30%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Rizespor 3.33. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 60% | Rizespor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 46% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.95 / Rizespor 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.073 / def 1.371 | Rizespor attack 0.898 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Rizespor xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Kasımpaşa 3 - 2 Rizespor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 46% chance of winning, Rizespor a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Rizespor?
Record (5 meetings): Kasımpaşa 2W | Draws 2 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Rizespor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Rizespor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.16
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.50
1.56
Rizespor xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
4%
23.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.56 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 59 games, going 22W 18D 19L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.31 PPG from 59 outings (22W 11D 26L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.42 PPG, Rizespor on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.83 points per game from 29 outings (7W 3D 19L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.22 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 22W 18D 19L in their last 59 games (1.42 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 22W 11D 26L in their last 59 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Rizespor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.41 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2026, when Rizespor won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
2
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Rizespor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-3 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Rizespor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 66%, Rizespor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Kasımpaşa and 66% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Kasımpaşa's games and 48% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 66% of Rizespor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Rizespor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Rizespor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Rizespor 3-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.95 xG and Rizespor 1.56 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.07 / defence 1.37 against Rizespor attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 46% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 30%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 66%, Rizespor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.42 PPG, Rizespor 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.