Kasımpaşa 5-4 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Hatayspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 January 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 2W 4D 4L at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kasımpaşa 1.10 PPG, Hatayspor 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kasımpaşa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hatayspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Kasımpaşa, 1 for Hatayspor and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Hatayspor in-play tendencies (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 65% and Hatayspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 65% | Hatayspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.50 xG and Hatayspor 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.862 / defence 1.168 | Hatayspor attack 0.834 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.212. Data: 57 Kasımpaşa games / 57 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 42% | Draw 30% | Hatayspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Hatayspor 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 60% | Hatayspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 42% | Draw 30% | Hatayspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.50 / Hatayspor 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.862 / def 1.168 | Hatayspor attack 0.834 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Hatayspor xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 27 January 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Kasımpaşa 5 - 4 Hatayspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 42% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor?
Record (7 meetings): Kasımpaşa 3W | Draws 3 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 0.86x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.34
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.68
1.18
Hatayspor xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
6%
16.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.18 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa's recent record stands at 20W 18D 19L from 57 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 21D 26L across 57 games — 0.89 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kasımpaşa by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hatayspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kasımpaşa have managed 9W 8D 10L from 27 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hatayspor's away record stands at 2W 9D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.09 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 20W 18D 19L in their last 57 games (1.37 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 10W 21D 26L in their last 57 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Hatayspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.30 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2024, when Kasımpaşa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
3
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Hatayspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2025, when Kasımpaşa 5-4 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 63%, Hatayspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Kasımpaşa) and 44% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 26% of games; Hatayspor in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Hatayspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Kasımpaşa's games and 48% of Hatayspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 44% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Hatayspor 5-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Hatayspor 5-4 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.50 xG and Hatayspor 1.18 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 5-4 for 9 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hatayspor outscored their 1.18 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against Hatayspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 42% | Draw 30% | Hatayspor 28%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 65%, Hatayspor 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Hatayspor's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kasımpaşa arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.