Hatayspor 1-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 33 as Hatayspor welcome Sivasspor to Yeni Hatay Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Hatayspor have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sivasspor's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Hatayspor) versus 1.10 (Sivasspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hatayspor, 1 for Sivasspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–4 with Sivasspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Sivasspor trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 53% versus Sivasspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 59% | Sivasspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.83 xG and Sivasspor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.148 / defence 1.097 | Sivasspor attack 0.877 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.219. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Hatayspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Hatayspor games / 32 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 51% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Sivasspor 4.35. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hatayspor 50% | Sivasspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 51% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Hatayspor 1.83 / Sivasspor 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.148 / def 1.097 | Sivasspor attack 0.877 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sivasspor xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Hatayspor 1 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 51% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hatayspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Sivasspor?
Record (1 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 0 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Hatayspor and Sivasspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (1.15) and Sivasspor's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
51%
1.94
25%
3.96
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
3.00
1.17
Sivasspor xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
16%
6.21
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
4%
26.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.17 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 14W 6D 12L from 32 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 11L across 32 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hatayspor on 1.50 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 9W 3D 3L from 15 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 5W 3D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatayspor are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.31 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Current Season
Sivasspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 14W 6D 12L in their last 32 games (1.50 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 10W 11D 11L in their last 32 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Nov 2021, when Sivasspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
3
Draws
3
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Sivasspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Hatayspor 3-2 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 60%, Sivasspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Hatayspor and 53% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hatayspor's games and 60% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Hatayspor's matches and 53% of Sivasspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor and Sivasspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor and Sivasspor finished level at 1-1 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.83 xG and Sivasspor 1.17 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.15 / defence 1.10 against Sivasspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.29, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 51% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 23%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 59%, Sivasspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.50 PPG, Sivasspor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.