Hatayspor 1-1 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 41%, yet in-form Göztepe provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hatayspor vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Göztepe travel to Mersin Stadyumu to take on Hatayspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 December 2024, 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hatayspor — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Mersin Stadyumu this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Mersin Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Göztepe stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 4L across 7 road games this term (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Göztepe — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hatayspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Göztepe in 71% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hatayspor have won 2, Göztepe 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Hatayspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hatayspor in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Göztepe in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hatayspor 57% and Göztepe 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 43% | Göztepe 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.62 xG and Göztepe 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.797 / defence 1.025 | Göztepe attack 1.152 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.192. Hatayspor's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Hatayspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Hatayspor games / 14 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 41% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 32%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Göztepe 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Göztepe (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 60% | Göztepe 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 41% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Hatayspor 1.62 / Göztepe 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.797 / def 1.025 | Göztepe attack 1.152 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Göztepe xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Hatayspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Göztepe?
Hatayspor 1 - 1 Göztepe.
Where is Hatayspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Göztepe part of?
Hatayspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 41% chance of winning, Göztepe a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hatayspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Göztepe?
Record (2 meetings): Hatayspor 2W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 0W.
What form are Hatayspor and Göztepe in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Göztepe (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hatayspor's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
41%
2.42
26%
3.79
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
3.02
1.41
Göztepe xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
6%
15.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.41 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hatayspor come into this having played 14 games, going 1W 5D 8L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Göztepe sit at 1.71 PPG from 14 outings (7W 3D 4L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Göztepe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hatayspor's home form reads 1W 3D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Göztepe have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Göztepe's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatayspor are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.93 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 1W 5D 8L in their last 14 games (0.57 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Göztepe away?
Hatayspor's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 0.86 PPG; Göztepe away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
2
Draws
0
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Göztepe?
From 4 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Göztepe have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Göztepe 1-1 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Göztepe?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 57%, Göztepe 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Hatayspor) and 57% (Göztepe).
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 43% of games; Göztepe in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Hatayspor's games and 71% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Hatayspor's recent games and 57% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor and Göztepe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, as Hatayspor and Göztepe drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.62 xG and Göztepe 1.41 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.80 / defence 1.02 against Göztepe attack 1.15 / defence 1.25, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 41% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 32%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 43%, Göztepe 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Göztepe's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Göztepe (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.