Hatayspor 1-2 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 41%, yet in-form Beşiktaş provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hatayspor and Beşiktaş meet at Mersin Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Monday 25 December 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's home record at Mersin Stadyumu: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beşiktaş have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hatayspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Beşiktaş in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Hatayspor, 1 for Beşiktaş and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2023, ended 0–3 with Beşiktaş winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 38% versus Beşiktaş 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hatayspor 71% | Beşiktaş 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.97 xG and Beşiktaş 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.190 / defence 1.232 | Beşiktaş attack 1.188 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.264. Data: 52 Hatayspor games / 52 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 41% | Draw 23% | Beşiktaş 36%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Beşiktaş 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hatayspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Beşiktaş (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.82 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 60% | Beşiktaş 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 25 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 41% | Draw 23% | Beşiktaş 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Hatayspor 1.97 / Beşiktaş 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.190 / def 1.232 | Beşiktaş attack 1.188 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Beşiktaş xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 25 December 2023 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Hatayspor 1 - 2 Beşiktaş.
Where is Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 41% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Hatayspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (4 meetings): Hatayspor 2W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Hatayspor and Beşiktaş in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 1.19x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.19x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
41%
2.44
23%
4.40
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
3.82
1.85
Beşiktaş xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.74
Clean Sheet
16%
6.36
14%
7.17
Win to Nil
6%
15.51
5%
19.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.85 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 10W 12D 30L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 31W 11D 10L from 52 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 1.19 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hatayspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L).
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 13W 5D 7L from 25 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hatayspor are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.94 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 10W 12D 30L in their last 52 games (0.81 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 31W 11D 10L in their last 52 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.12 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 5-1 on 25 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
3
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Beşiktaş 5-1 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 48%, Beşiktaş 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Hatayspor and 56% for Beşiktaş. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Hatayspor's games and 64% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Hatayspor's matches and 56% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Hatayspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Beşiktaş defy the odds to beat Hatayspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Hatayspor 1-2 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.97 xG and Beşiktaş 1.85 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.19 / defence 1.23 against Beşiktaş attack 1.19 / defence 1.06, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 41% | Draw 23% | Beşiktaş 36%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Beşiktaş win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 71%, Beşiktaş 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.