Hatayspor 3-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hatayspor at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Hatay Stadyumu plays host to Hatayspor versus Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hatayspor have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hatayspor have posted 4W 1D 1L at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu — 2.17 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antalyaspor (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 1W 2D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Hatayspor's favour (2.20 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 50% versus Antalyaspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 42% | Antalyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.47 xG and Antalyaspor 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.057 / defence 1.053 | Antalyaspor attack 0.855 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.111. Data: 12 Hatayspor games / 12 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 48% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Antalyaspor 3.85. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hatayspor 67% | Antalyaspor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 48% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Hatayspor 1.47 / Antalyaspor 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.057 / def 1.053 | Antalyaspor attack 0.855 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Antalyaspor xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Hatayspor 3 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 48% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hatayspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Antalyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hatayspor and Antalyaspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (1.06) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.85x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.80
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.47
1.00
Antalyaspor xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
6%
16.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.00 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 7W 2D 3L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor's form line: 4W 3D 5L from 12 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hatayspor are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Antalyaspor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 2.40 PPG from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hatayspor are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 games (1.92 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 2.40 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Antalyaspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 4-1 on 11 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hatayspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
2
Draws
5
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Antalyaspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Hatayspor 2-3 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 60%, Antalyaspor 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Hatayspor and 40% for Antalyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Hatayspor's recent matches and 40% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hatayspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Hatayspor's matches and 40% of Antalyaspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Antalyaspor 3-1 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.47 xG and Antalyaspor 1.00 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hatayspor beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.05 against Antalyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.18, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 48% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 26%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 42%, Antalyaspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hatayspor arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.