Giresunspor 1-2 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kayserispor at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Giresunspor vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Kayserispor travel to Çotanak Stadyumu to take on Giresunspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 February 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Giresunspor — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Giresunspor have posted 3W 2D 5L at Çotanak Stadyumu — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kayserispor stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Giresunspor 1.20 PPG, Kayserispor 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Giresunspor, 2 for Kayserispor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 0–3 with Kayserispor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Giresunspor in-play and half-time data (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 54% versus Kayserispor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Giresunspor 46% | Kayserispor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.37 xG and Kayserispor 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.789 / defence 1.132 | Kayserispor attack 1.098 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.352. Giresunspor's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Giresunspor games / 59 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 31% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 45%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Kayserispor 2.22. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kayserispor at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kayserispor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Giresunspor 50% | Kayserispor 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 31% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Giresunspor 1.37 / Kayserispor 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.789 / def 1.132 | Kayserispor attack 1.098 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Kayserispor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Giresunspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Kayserispor?
Giresunspor 1 - 2 Kayserispor.
Where is Giresunspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Giresunspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 31% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Giresunspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Kayserispor?
Record (3 meetings): Giresunspor 0W | Draws 1 | Kayserispor 2W.
What form are Giresunspor and Kayserispor in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Giresunspor's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Kayserispor's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Giresunspor's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
31%
3.19
24%
4.21
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
3.05
1.68
Kayserispor xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
19%
5.36
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
6%
17.08
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Giresunspor and 1.68 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Giresunspor come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 15D 27L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 1.34 PPG from 59 outings (22W 13D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Giresunspor on 1.12 PPG, Kayserispor on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Giresunspor's home form reads 10W 6D 12L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 0.93 points per game from 28 outings (6W 8D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kayserispor's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Giresunspor are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.47 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 17W 15D 27L in their last 59 games (1.12 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 22W 13D 24L in their last 59 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Giresunspor's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.29 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Kayserispor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2022, when Kayserispor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Giresunspor's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Giresunspor
1
Draws
3
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Kayserispor?
From 4 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 0, Kayserispor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Giresunspor 1-2 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Kayserispor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 50%, Kayserispor 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Giresunspor) and 57% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Giresunspor's games and 68% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Giresunspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Giresunspor's recent games and 57% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kayserispor edge out Giresunspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Giresunspor 1-2 at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.37 xG and Kayserispor 1.68 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against Kayserispor attack 1.10 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 31% | Draw 24% | Kayserispor 45%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 46%, Kayserispor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Giresunspor 1.12 PPG, Kayserispor 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.