Gaziantep FK 0-0 Yeni Malatyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gaziantep FK at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gaziantep Stadyumu plays host to Gaziantep FK versus Yeni Malatyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Wednesday 23 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gaziantep FK have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK at Gaziantep Stadyumu this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at Gaziantep Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Yeni Malatyaspor (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yeni Malatyaspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Gaziantep FK. A 1.50 PPG lead over Yeni Malatyaspor (1.70 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Gaziantep FK 0W, Yeni Malatyaspor 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Yeni Malatyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gaziantep FK — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Yeni Malatyaspor — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 8% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 44% versus Yeni Malatyaspor 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 48% | Yeni Malatyaspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.76 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 1.373 / defence 1.211 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.501 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.152. Gaziantep FK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 25 Gaziantep FK games / 25 Yeni Malatyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 62% | Draw 23% | Yeni Malatyaspor 14%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Yeni Malatyaspor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Gaziantep FK (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 70% | Yeni Malatyaspor 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 62% | Draw 23% | Yeni Malatyaspor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 42% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.76 / Yeni Malatyaspor 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 1.373 / def 1.211 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.501 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 23 February 2022 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Gaziantep FK 0 - 0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 62% chance of winning, Yeni Malatyaspor a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Yeni Malatyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Gaziantep FK 0W | Draws 0 | Yeni Malatyaspor 1W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Yeni Malatyaspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (1.37) and Yeni Malatyaspor's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Yeni Malatyaspor's attack (0.50x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
62%
1.60
23%
4.27
14%
7.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.46
0.70
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
7.10
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
2%
41.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Yeni Malatyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 0.70 for Yeni Malatyaspor, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gaziantep FK come into this having played 25 games, going 10W 5D 10L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Yeni Malatyaspor sit at 0.64 PPG from 25 outings (4W 4D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Yeni Malatyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Gaziantep FK's home form reads 9W 2D 1L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.42 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Yeni Malatyaspor have taken 0.58 points per game from 12 outings (2W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Yeni Malatyaspor are on 0.80 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Yeni Malatyaspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 10W 5D 10L in their last 25 games (1.40 PPG), while Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 4D 17L in their last 25 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Yeni Malatyaspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.42 PPG; Yeni Malatyaspor away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gaziantep FK
1
Draws
1
Yeni Malatyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Yeni Malatyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 0, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Yeni Malatyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2022, when Gaziantep FK 0-0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Yeni Malatyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gaziantep FK see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Yeni Malatyaspor see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 58% (Gaziantep FK) and 8% (Yeni Malatyaspor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Gaziantep FK) and 17% (Yeni Malatyaspor).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Yeni Malatyaspor in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Yeni Malatyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 8% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 17% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Gaziantep FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, as Gaziantep FK and Yeni Malatyaspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.76 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.70 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 1.37 / defence 1.21 against Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.50 / defence 1.13, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 62% | Draw 23% | Yeni Malatyaspor 14%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 48%, Yeni Malatyaspor 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gaziantep FK arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Yeni Malatyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.