Gaziantep FK 0-0 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gaziantep FK at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gaziantep FK vs Bodrum FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gaziantep Stadyumu plays host to Gaziantep FK versus Bodrum FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gaziantep FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep FK have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
Bodrum FK have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bodrum FK have gone 1W 1D 7L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.56 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Gaziantep FK's 1.90 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Bodrum FK's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Gaziantep FK, 0 for Bodrum FK and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Gaziantep FK — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Bodrum FK — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 56% versus Bodrum FK 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 61% | Bodrum FK 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.74 xG and Bodrum FK 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.936 / defence 0.658 | Bodrum FK attack 0.652 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.184. Gaziantep FK's defence rating of 0.658 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Gaziantep FK games / 18 Bodrum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 66% | Draw 25% | Bodrum FK 9%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 1.52 | Draw 4.00 | Bodrum FK 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Gaziantep FK (66%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Bodrum FK's lower xG of 0.51 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 40% | Bodrum FK 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 66% | Draw 25% | Bodrum FK 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 34% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.74 / Bodrum FK 0.51 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.936 / def 0.658 | Bodrum FK attack 0.652 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
0.51
Bodrum FK xG
34%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Bodrum FK?
Gaziantep FK 0 - 0 Bodrum FK.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Bodrum FK part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Bodrum FK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 66% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 9% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Bodrum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Bodrum FK?
Record (1 meetings): Gaziantep FK 1W | Draws 0 | Bodrum FK 0W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Bodrum FK in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Bodrum FK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gaziantep FK's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Bodrum FK's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Bodrum FK's attack (0.65x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.51.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (16.0%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
66%
1.52
25%
3.94
9%
11.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.25
0.51
Bodrum FK xG
1.52
66%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
11.63
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.90
66%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
60%
1.66
18%
5.71
Win to Nil
40%
2.52
2%
66.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 9.3 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 16.0 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 0.51 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Bodrum FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 7W 4D 7L from 18 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodrum FK, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 11L across 18 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gaziantep FK by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bodrum FK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 6W 2D 1L from 9 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bodrum FK's away record stands at 1W 1D 7L across 9 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 0.78 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Bodrum FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 4W 3D 11L in their last 18 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Bodrum FK away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 2.22 PPG; Bodrum FK away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Bodrum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bodrum FK in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Gaziantep FK
1
Draws
0
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Bodrum FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Bodrum FK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Bodrum FK last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Gaziantep FK 0-0 Bodrum FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Bodrum FK?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bodrum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Gaziantep FK) and 33% (Bodrum FK) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Gaziantep FK) and 44% (Bodrum FK).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Bodrum FK in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Bodrum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 33% of Bodrum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Bodrum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 44% of Bodrum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Bodrum FK tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bodrum FK in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gaziantep FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK and Bodrum FK finished level at 0-0 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.74 xG and Bodrum FK 0.51 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.94 / defence 0.66 against Bodrum FK attack 0.65 / defence 1.14, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 66% | Draw 25% | Bodrum FK 9%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 61%, Bodrum FK 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bodrum FK's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gaziantep FK arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.