Galatasaray 3-2 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Galatasaray at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Galatasaray vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NEF Stadyumu plays host to Galatasaray versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Monday 16 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Galatasaray have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Galatasaray's home record at NEF Stadyumu: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Galatasaray's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Adana Demirspor's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Galatasaray, 1 for Adana Demirspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Adana Demirspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Galatasaray goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Galatasaray 56% versus Adana Demirspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Galatasaray 47% | Adana Demirspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Galatasaray 1.59 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Galatasaray attack 1.092 / defence 1.139 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.686 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.344. Adana Demirspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Galatasaray's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Galatasaray games / 36 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Galatasaray 47% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Galatasaray 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Adana Demirspor 4.35. Galatasaray hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Galatasaray at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Galatasaray if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Galatasaray 60% | Adana Demirspor 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Galatasaray vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: NEF Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 16 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Galatasaray 47% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Galatasaray 1.59 / Adana Demirspor 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Galatasaray attack 1.092 / def 1.139 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.686 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Galatasaray (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Galatasaray xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Adana Demirspor xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Galatasaray vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Galatasaray vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 16 May 2022 at NEF Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Galatasaray vs Adana Demirspor?
Galatasaray 3 - 2 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Galatasaray vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at NEF Stadyumu.
What competition is Galatasaray vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Galatasaray vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Galatasaray vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Galatasaray a 47% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Galatasaray the favourite.
Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Galatasaray and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Galatasaray vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Adana Demirspor?
Record (1 meetings): Galatasaray 0W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Galatasaray and Adana Demirspor in?
Galatasaray (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Galatasaray's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.69x) against Galatasaray's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galatasaray Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.32
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Galatasaray xG
Total xG
2.64
1.05
Adana Demirspor xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
5%
21.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Galatasaray vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Galatasaray and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Galatasaray and 1.05 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Galatasaray vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Galatasaray's recent record stands at 13W 9D 14L from 36 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 12L across 36 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Galatasaray against 1.44 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Galatasaray have managed 9W 3D 6L from 18 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 6W 5D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Galatasaray are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.42 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Galatasaray
Current Season
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Galatasaray and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Galatasaray have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Galatasaray at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Galatasaray's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Galatasaray at home: 1.67 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Galatasaray go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Galatasaray won 1-5 on 31 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Galatasaray have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Galatasaray
1
Draws
1
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Galatasaray and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Galatasaray have won 6, Adana Demirspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Galatasaray and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Galatasaray 1-0 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Galatasaray and Adana Demirspor?
Galatasaray have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Galatasaray are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Galatasaray 61%, Adana Demirspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Galatasaray) and 56% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Galatasaray home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Galatasaray play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Galatasaray's games and 56% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Galatasaray vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Galatasaray's recent games and 56% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Galatasaray and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Galatasaray have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Galatasaray edge out Adana Demirspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galatasaray beat Adana Demirspor 3-2 at NEF Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Galatasaray 1.59 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.05 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Galatasaray beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Galatasaray attack 1.09 / defence 1.14 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.69 / defence 1.21, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Galatasaray 47% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 23%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Galatasaray 47%, Adana Demirspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Galatasaray's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Galatasaray 1.33 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Galatasaray win broke the near-deadlock. Galatasaray (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.