Göztepe 0-0 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Göztepe face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 2 as Göztepe welcome Fenerbahçe to Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Göztepe — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Fenerbahçe haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Fenerbahçe's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Göztepe's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Göztepe register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fenerbahçe in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Göztepe, 2 for Fenerbahçe and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 2–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Göztepe trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Göztepe 64% and Fenerbahçe 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 56% | Fenerbahçe 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.55 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.034 / defence 0.924 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.292 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.349. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Göztepe games / 36 Fenerbahçe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Göztepe 37% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 40%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Fenerbahçe 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Göztepe 60% | Fenerbahçe 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 37% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Göztepe 1.55 / Fenerbahçe 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.034 / def 0.924 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.292 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Fenerbahçe xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe?
Göztepe 0 - 0 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 37% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Göztepe and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Fenerbahçe?
Record (4 meetings): Göztepe 0W | Draws 2 | Fenerbahçe 2W.
What form are Göztepe and Fenerbahçe in?
Göztepe (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (1.03) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
37%
2.72
24%
4.24
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Göztepe xG
Total xG
3.16
1.61
Fenerbahçe xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
8%
11.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.61 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Göztepe's recent record stands at 14W 10D 12L from 36 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 26W 6D 4L across 36 games — 2.33 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. Fenerbahçe haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Göztepe heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Göztepe have managed 10W 6D 2L from 18 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 12W 4D 2L across 18 trips, a 2.22 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.50 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Fenerbahçe in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 games (1.44 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 26W 6D 4L in their last 36 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.00 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Fenerbahçe runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Göztepe's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Göztepe
4
Draws
2
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Fenerbahçe?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 56%, Fenerbahçe 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Göztepe) and 67% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Göztepe's games and 61% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Göztepe vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Göztepe's matches and 67% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Göztepe and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Göztepe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, as Göztepe and Fenerbahçe drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.55 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.61 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Göztepe fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.03 / defence 0.92 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.29 / defence 0.99, drawn from 37/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 37% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 40%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 56%, Fenerbahçe 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Göztepe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.