Fenerbahçe 4-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Monday 15 December 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Konyaspor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Fenerbahçe. A 1.30 PPG lead over Konyaspor (2.20 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fenerbahçe register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Konyaspor in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Fenerbahçe, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Konyaspor — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Fenerbahçe winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fenerbahçe and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fenerbahçe 63% and Konyaspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 67% | Konyaspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.04 xG and Konyaspor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.350 / defence 0.921 | Konyaspor attack 0.944 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.324. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Fenerbahçe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Fenerbahçe games / 51 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 55% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 70% | Konyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu • Kick-off: Monday 15 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 55% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.04 / Konyaspor 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.350 / def 0.921 | Konyaspor attack 0.944 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Konyaspor xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 15 December 2025 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Fenerbahçe 4 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 55% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor?
Record (7 meetings): Fenerbahçe 5W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (0.94x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
55%
1.82
27%
3.70
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.19
1.15
Konyaspor xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
13%
7.65
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
2%
42.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.15 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Fenerbahçe have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 35W 12D 4L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 17W 11D 23L from 51 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fenerbahçe have posted 2.44 PPG from 25 outings (19W 4D 2L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 6W 4D 15L from 25 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.39 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.27 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Konyaspor in 65%.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 35W 12D 4L in their last 51 games (2.29 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 17W 11D 23L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Konyaspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.44 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Fenerbahçe have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 7-1 on 10 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Fenerbahçe
1
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 8, Konyaspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Fenerbahçe 4-2 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Fenerbahçe, 68% for Konyaspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Fenerbahçe and 52% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Fenerbahçe's games and 68% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 52% of Konyaspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Konyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Konyaspor 4-0 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.04 xG and Konyaspor 1.15 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Konyaspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.35 / defence 0.92 against Konyaspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.21, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 55% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 18%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 67%, Konyaspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Konyaspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.