Fenerbahçe 1-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Kasımpaşa.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fenerbahçe host Kasımpaşa at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Fenerbahçe have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Fenerbahçe have dominated this rivalry, winning 8 of 9 past contests while Kasımpaşa have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fenerbahçe and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Fenerbahçe in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fenerbahçe 62% and Kasımpaşa 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 67% | Kasımpaşa 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 2.05 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.337 / defence 0.930 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.834 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.264. Fenerbahçe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.337 — their λ of 2.05 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Fenerbahçe games / 58 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 59% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 14%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Kasımpaşa 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Fenerbahçe 70% | Kasımpaşa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu • Kick-off: Monday 23 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 59% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Fenerbahçe 2.05 / Kasımpaşa 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.337 / def 0.930 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.834 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Kasımpaşa xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 23 February 2026 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Fenerbahçe 1 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 59% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa?
Record (9 meetings): Fenerbahçe 8W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.78
14%
6.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.03
0.98
Kasımpaşa xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
6.97
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
2%
54.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.98 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 41W 13D 4L from 58 games, a 2.34 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 15W 21D 22L across 58 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kasımpaşa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 21W 5D 2L from 28 games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 9W 8D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.43 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.40 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Kasımpaşa in 64%.
Last 58 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 41W 13D 4L in their last 58 games (2.34 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 15W 21D 22L in their last 58 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.43 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 8, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 64%, Kasımpaşa 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Fenerbahçe and 68% for Kasımpaşa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Fenerbahçe's games and 57% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 68% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa finished level at 1-1 at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 2.05 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.98 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fenerbahçe fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.34 / defence 0.93 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 59% | Draw 26% | Kasımpaşa 14%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 67%, Kasımpaşa 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.