Fenerbahçe 4-2 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi to face Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Monday 22 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fenerbahçe have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 6W 3D 1L at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Adana Demirspor's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Fenerbahçe's favour (2.40 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fenerbahçe lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Adana Demirspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 62% versus Adana Demirspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 58% | Adana Demirspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.83 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.140 / defence 1.066 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.130 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.346. Data: 40 Fenerbahçe games / 40 Adana Demirspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 43% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Adana Demirspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates are neutral: Fenerbahçe 50% | Adana Demirspor 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Monday 22 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 43% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.83 / Adana Demirspor 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.140 / def 1.066 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.130 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Adana Demirspor xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 22 August 2022 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Fenerbahçe 4 - 2 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 43% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor?
Record (2 meetings): Fenerbahçe 1W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fenerbahçe's attack rating (1.14) and Adana Demirspor's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (1.13x) against Fenerbahçe's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
43%
2.32
22%
4.48
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.45
1.62
Adana Demirspor xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.74
6%
18.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.62 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 22W 11D 7L from 40 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 13L across 40 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.92 PPG for Fenerbahçe against 1.52 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 11W 6D 3L from 20 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 7W 5D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.65 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 22W 11D 7L in their last 40 games (1.92 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 17W 10D 13L in their last 40 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 1.95 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Fenerbahçe have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fenerbahçe won 0-4 on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fenerbahçe have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
1
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 5, Adana Demirspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-4 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 60%, Adana Demirspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Fenerbahçe) and 60% (Adana Demirspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Adana Demirspor in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Fenerbahçe's games and 60% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 60% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Adana Demirspor 4-2 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.83 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.62 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.13 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 43% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 35%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 58%, Adana Demirspor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fenerbahçe 1.92 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fenerbahçe win broke the near-deadlock. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.