Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatayspor make the trip to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to face Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 October 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 5W 2D 2L across 9 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.89 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.22 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 0L across 4 games at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.89 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 1D 2L from 9 games (2.11 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.78 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Hatayspor have posted 3W 0D 1L from 4 away outings — 2.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 4 games (75%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.89 vs 2.11 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 33% versus Hatayspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 56% | Hatayspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.31 xG and Hatayspor 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.194 / defence 1.014 | Hatayspor attack 1.022 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.139. Data: 9 Fatih Karagümrük games / 9 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Draw 27% | Hatayspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Hatayspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Hatayspor 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Draw 27% | Hatayspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.31 / Hatayspor 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.194 / def 1.014 | Hatayspor attack 1.022 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Hatayspor xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 1 Hatayspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 40% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Hatayspor (all comps): 6W-1D-2L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.78 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (1.02x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
40%
2.53
27%
3.70
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.49
1.18
Hatayspor xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.18 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 5W 2D 2L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor's form line: 6W 1D 2L from 9 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 2.11 for Hatayspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Fatih Karagümrük are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 2.00 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Hatayspor in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 games (1.89 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 6W 1D 2L in their last 9 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Hatayspor away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 2.50 PPG; Hatayspor away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won 3-0 on 12 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Hatayspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when Hatayspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 50%, Hatayspor 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 25% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Hatayspor in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 25% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 25% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük and Hatayspor finished level at 1-1 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.31 xG and Hatayspor 1.18 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.19 / defence 1.01 against Hatayspor attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 40% | Draw 27% | Hatayspor 33%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 56%, Hatayspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Hatayspor's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.89 PPG, Hatayspor 2.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.