Fatih Karagümrük 4-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı plays host to Fatih Karagümrük versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 11 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.33 PPG across 3 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 1D 1L. Last five: W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 0W 2D 1L across 3 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.67 points per game. Last five: L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Fatih Karagümrük's 1.33 PPG return is 0.66 points per game ahead of Adana Demirspor's 0.67 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 33% versus Adana Demirspor 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fatih Karagümrük 33% | Adana Demirspor 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.185 / defence 1.283 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.837 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.137. Data: 3 Fatih Karagümrük games / 3 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 39% | Draw 27% | Adana Demirspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Adana Demirspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Fatih Karagümrük 33% | Adana Demirspor 67%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 39% | Draw 27% | Adana Demirspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 / Adana Demirspor 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.185 / def 1.283 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.837 / def 1.140 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Adana Demirspor xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor?
Fatih Karagümrük 4 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 39% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 1.19x the league average against Adana Demirspor's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.84x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.75
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.55
1.22
Adana Demirspor xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.22 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 3 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Adana Demirspor's form line: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games, 0.67 PPG, last five L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Fatih Karagümrük are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Adana Demirspor.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 0.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 (0.67 PPG).
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won 5-0 on 22 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
0
Draws
4
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Adana Demirspor have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2024, when Adana Demirspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Adana Demirspor see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 33%, Adana Demirspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Fatih Karagümrük and 0% for Adana Demirspor.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 67% of games; Adana Demirspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Adana Demirspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 67% of Adana Demirspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 0% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fatih Karagümrük run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Adana Demirspor 4-0 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.22 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Adana Demirspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.19 / defence 1.28 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 39% | Draw 27% | Adana Demirspor 34%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 33%, Adana Demirspor 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Fatih Karagümrük scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.